Is rigorous punishment effective? A case study of lifetime license revocation in Taiwan.

This study investigated the effectiveness of administrative lifetime driver's license revocation (ALLR) and its impact on offenders, based on a two-stage survey of 768 offenders. It was found that after ALLR had been imposed, 23.4% of these offenders were still driving almost the same as before, 59.8% drove significantly less frequently, and only 16.8% of the offenders gave up driving completely. The results of logistic regression models showed that offenders' compliance with ALLR was significantly correlated with their personal characteristics (age, income), penalty status (incarceration, duration of ALLR), and the need to drive for working, commuting and shopping. Elderly and low-income offenders were more likely to abide by the ALLR restriction. The application of the generalized estimating equations (GEE) model was used to identify the determinant factors affecting offenders' driving mileage, and to effectively estimate the driving mileage reduction as a result of the ALLR. It was found that ALLR is fairly effective in keeping offenders off the road, but that it may reduce their ability to make a living, resulting in the less fortunate becoming more helpless.